Tuesday, July 21, 2009

2009 Kentucky Football Preview: Vegas Style

In this week's edition of Closet Gamblers 101, we discuss the 2009 football Cats. More importantly, the view Vegas has of our beloved Cats. While some things have changed in the past year, the view from out west stays unchanged.

VegasInsider.com has released its annual College Football Futures wagering lines and the Cats are predictably toward the bottom of the SEC and college football. One thing that caught my eye, though, is the semi-favorable view of the Cats overall win total.

Vegas has marked Kentucky at 150/1 to win the BCS National Championship game. One thing I can't understand is how they expect to get any play on that number. Why not put the number at 1500/1 or even 15000/1? Even the most loyal UK fan can't justify throwing a penny toward 150/1 to win it all, right? We might "believe", but not at 150/1.

The odds are shorter to win the SEC Championship game. The Cats come into 2009 at 60/1 to take home the title I'll be lucky to see us win in my lifetime, tied with Vandy and just ahead of Mississippi State (75/1). If the money is on Florida (1/2) and the trio of LSU, Bama, and Ole Miss (9/2), the least you could do is give me the public something better than 60/1.

The final number of the day is the 2009 win total. I was guessing the over/under would be 5 or 5.5, but to my surprise Vegas puts the number at 6 wins. Perfectly fine, but for an offense still trying to find its feet and a "D" that has been hurt in the offseason, 6 wins mean Kentucky HAS to win every game its supposed to. And to be frank, that might be asking too much.


Sure the Cats might lose a lock game and sure they might stumble upon a marquee win, but with an unproven backfield, an overall shaky offense, and a defense without JJ, Vegas might be forcing my hand to take the under. Prove me wrong Cats.

Odds to win 2009 SEC Championship game:

Florida - (1/2)
Ole Miss - (9/2)
LSU - (9/2)
Alabama - (9/2)
Georgia - (10/1)
South Carolina - (20/1)
Tennessee - (20/1)
Arkansas - (25/1)
Auburn - (40/1)
Kentucky - (60/1)
Vandy - (60/1)
Mississippi State - (75/1)

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